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Will the leaves have turned in Nara?
Autumn colour forecasts arrive a few weeks ahead and move about. If you are booking now, the more useful question is what the record says: how often the maples and ginkgo in Nara were in colour during the dates you have in mind.
Where the season is today
Nara's maple averages November 21. That is 32 days away.
No season in the last 15 had turned this early. The earliest on record is November 9, in 2017.
An average, not a forecast — the record below shows how far individual seasons stray from it.
Your travel dates
The year does not matter — we compare your dates against every recorded season.
Season by season
in colour during your visit not yet turned mostly fallen
Worked answers
Will the autumn leaves be out in Nara in early November?
In 0 of the last 15 seasons, Nara's recorded maple was in colour at some point between November 1 and November 7, and the ginkgo in 0. The maple had not yet turned in 15 of those years and had mostly dropped its leaves in 0.
Will the autumn leaves be out in Nara in mid November?
In 7 of the last 15 seasons, Nara's recorded maple was in colour at some point between November 10 and November 16, and the ginkgo in 3. The maple had not yet turned in 8 of those years and had mostly dropped its leaves in 0.
Is the third week of November a good time for autumn colour in Nara?
In 8 of the last 15 seasons, Nara's recorded maple was in colour at some point between November 17 and November 23, and the ginkgo in 11. The maple had not yet turned in 7 of those years and had mostly dropped its leaves in 0.
Are the leaves still out in Nara at the end of November?
In 9 of the last 15 seasons, Nara's recorded maple was in colour at some point between November 24 and November 30, and the ginkgo in 13. The maple had not yet turned in 3 of those years and had mostly dropped its leaves in 3.
Is early December too late for autumn leaves in Nara?
In 10 of the last 15 seasons, Nara's recorded maple was in colour at some point between December 1 and December 7, and the ginkgo in 7. The maple had not yet turned in 0 of those years and had mostly dropped its leaves in 5.
What the record shows
| Season | Maple turned | Maple fallen | Ginkgo turned | Ginkgo fallen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 * | December 2 | December 13 | November 26 | December 15 |
| 2012 * | November 25 | December 6 | November 15 | November 30 |
| 2013 * | November 28 | December 10 | November 22 | December 10 |
| 2014 * | November 26 | December 2 | November 25 | December 1 |
| 2015 * | December 7 | December 13 | November 22 | December 3 |
| 2016 * | December 4 | December 12 | November 22 | December 1 |
| 2017 | November 9 | November 24 | November 21 | December 1 |
| 2018 | November 14 | December 5 | November 24 | December 6 |
| 2019 | November 15 | November 29 | November 27 | December 9 |
| 2020 | November 13 | November 24 | November 17 | November 30 |
| 2021 | November 15 | November 29 | November 19 | November 24 |
| 2022 | November 14 | November 24 | November 11 | November 24 |
| 2023 | November 20 | December 11 | November 20 | December 4 |
| 2024 | November 28 | December 9 | November 8 | December 2 |
| 2025 | November 14 | December 3 | November 18 | November 27 |
| Average | November 21 | December 5 | November 18 | December 4 |
* Maple observed on a tree in the observatory's grounds; from 2017, on one nearby. Averages are the agency's 1991–2020 normals. The full record back to 1953 is available as JSON and CSV.
Across these 15 seasons the maple turned as early as November 9 (2017) and as late as December 7 (2015). The ginkgo ranged from November 8 to November 27. Neither tree reliably leads: the ginkgo turned first in 8 of these seasons and the maple in 6, so checking both is worth the extra line.
A caveat about the maple
The Japan Meteorological Agency marks each observation as made on a tree in the observatory's grounds or one nearby. Nara's maple has been observed on a nearby tree since 2017, and its ginkgo since 1986. In the 6 seasons before 2017 in the table above, the maple turned on November 30 on average; in the 9 since, on November 16 — 15 days earlier. The record cannot tell us how much of that is the different tree and how much the weather, so for maples, give the recent seasons more weight than the older ones.
The longer view
The ginkgo has been observed on the same tree since 1986. Over its first ten seasons it turned yellow on November 12 on average; over the last ten, on November 19 — 7 days later.
How this is worked out
The agency records two dates for each tree. Turned: the first day the sample tree, seen as a whole, has mostly turned red with almost no green left. Fallen: the first day about eighty per cent of the tree's leaves have fallen. A season counts as in colour during your visit when your dates overlap the days between those two. It counts as not yet turned when you leave before the turning date, and mostly fallen when you arrive on or after the fall date. We do not estimate how good the colour looked on a given day, because that is not observed to any standard.
These are Nara city's trees. Temples in the hills around the city, and places like Muroji and Tanzan Jinja at higher altitude, run to their own timetable.
Source: Japan Meteorological Agency, phenological observation records; definitions from the agency's observation guidelines. Species: Iroha momiji (Acer palmatum); Ginkgo (Ginkgo biloba). Observed by the Japan Meteorological Agency on designated sample trees in Nara city, to a national standard. These are the city's dates, not a forecast, and not the dates for mountain temples outside the city.